Adapting Industrial Forestry Practices to Climate Change in the Northwest

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Sustainable forest management that integrates climate change considerations can help forests and forest-dependent industries build resilience to the effects of climate change. USDA Forest Service photo of the Mt. Hood National Forest by Preston Keres.

Forests in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington are vital economic, ecological, and social resources. They provide plant and animal habitat, generate timber, purify air and water, and support rural livelihoods and communities. However, climate change is likely to alter forests in the region, which could affect forest industries. Rising temperatures and more frequent wildfires, droughts, and other disturbances could influence where some tree species can grow and where they will continue to be productive. For instance, the range of ponderosa pine could increase at higher elevations in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon and Washington, and Douglas-fir could expand into higher elevations in the western Cascades. Some forests may even transition to grasslands and shrublands, particularly at lower elevations, eliminating timber production in those locations. Low- and mid-elevation dry coniferous forests, like those found on the east side of the Cascades, the Palouse Prairie-forest ecotone in Washington and Idaho, and drier Rocky Mountain regions of northern Idaho, are particularly vulnerable to increasing wildfire frequency and size. Compounding these challenges, tree growth rates and habitat at some locations may decline, which could affect economic benefits. 

In response to these changes, the Sustainable Forestry Initiative (SFI) partnered with the USDA Northwest Climate Hub to identify key climate vulnerabilities in industrial forestry and develop adaptation strategies to manage climate risks and build resilience. The goals of this partnership included 1) identifying climate change risks to SFI-certified organizations; 2) developing a regional risk assessment; 3) identifying potential adaptation actions to address climate change impacts; and 4) in some cases, providing mitigation opportunities. These goals were achieved with a workshop that included SFI members from Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Montana, and California.

Key climate vulnerabilities of industrial forestry practices in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington

The effects of climate change differ across Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, with some effects influencing forest ecosystems and forestry operations more than others. Generally, the area west of the Cascade Range has a maritime climate with mild seasonal temperatures and wet winters. The Cascades act as a moisture barrier to the east side of the mountains, where the climate is drier, with colder winters and hotter summers. Considering regional climate, members of SFI and the Northwest Climate Hub identified key climate vulnerabilities for east- and west-side forests. 

• Higher Temperatures – Temperatures in the Northwest are project to increase 4.5 to 5.6°F by the 2080s, depending on global greenhouse gas emissions, with the greatest warming expected to occur during summer.
• Warmer Winters – The winter season will be shorter and warmer. There will be fewer chilling hours, which can affect the bud break of trees. At low to mid elevations, there will be less precipitation falling as snow, as well as reduced snow cover and depth. 
• Changing Precipitation – Annual precipitation is projected to increase over the course of the 21^st century. Seasonally, precipitation will likely increase in the winter, and summer precipitation may decrease. Intense precipitation events will likely become more frequent. The timing and amount of stream flow is expected to change, with higher peak flows in winter and lower low-flows in summer.
• Extreme Events – Heavy rainfall events are expected to become more severe, with a greater length of time between precipitation events. In some areas, heavy rainfall can lead to flooding and/or landslides. Extreme-heat events are also likely to become more frequent. Early warming in spring followed by frost can damage tree buds.
• Altered soil moisture and increased drought risk – Warmer temperatures and changing precipitation will interact to change soil moisture patterns throughout the year, with the potential for both wetter and drier conditions depending on the location and season. Forest vegetation will likely experience more moisture deficit and drought stress during the summer, potentially reducing tree growth and forest productivity.
• Increased wildfire area burned – Higher temperatures, lower summer precipitation, and drier conditions will lead to longer fire seasons and increased area burned. 
• Increase in insect pests and forest pathogens – Certain insect pests and pathogens (e.g., mountain pine beetle) will increase in occurrence or become more damaging in a warmer climate. Though there is uncertainty about how climate change will affect forest pathogens, tracking this relationship over time will be important to forest industries. 
• Increased invasive plant species – With increased disturbance, there will be more opportunities for the establishment of invasive plants (e.g., cheatgrass, ventenata).
• Changes in forest composition – Many tree species will face increasing stress across the region, particularly those species that are not tolerant of drought and are at the southern edge of their range. Conditions affecting tree regeneration and recruitment will change.
• Increased costs for forest operators – Road damage and erosion from heavy rainfall, and regeneration failures from seedling mortality will contribute to increased costs.

Adaptation strategies that address climate change risks to forest industries

A variety of forest products. USDA Forest Service photo.

Though timber-based economies face heightened economic risks from climate change, forest managers have valuable local knowledge that can be used to adapt to challenges and, in some cases, reduce the effects of climate change. Recognizing this, SFI and the USDA Northwest Climate Hub worked with representatives from the timber industry to identify adaptation and mitigation actions to address climate change. Importantly, climate-informed management does not require a wholesale change in management. In most cases, it consists of using and modifying best practices as needed, and reprioritizing the type and location of some practices. The following sections describe climate vulnerabilities and offer possible adaptations for industrial forestry practices.