With air temperatures rising at two to three times the rate of the global average, Alaska is at the forefront of climate change. Rising temperatures and changes to precipitation could contribute to increased drought, increased frequency and severity of wildfires, and increased pest and invasive plant pressure. Climate change could also cause permafrost to thaw more rapidly, leading to the potential destabilization of infrastructure and ecosystems.
While much research and attention have focused on rising air temperatures in Alaska, soil temperatures have received less attention. Though it may be expected that soil temperatures would increase alongside air temperatures, Alaska’s long winters and heavy snowfall can buffer soils from both cold and hot extremes. Because of this, it is harder to predict the rate at which soil temperatures may change as air temperatures rise.
Though some of the effects of climate change will present challenges to Alaskan farmers, warmer soils could also lead to some positive changes. Warmer soils could contribute to a longer growing season in Alaska, as well as an expansion of the types of crops that can be grown. A better understanding of changes to soil temperatures will help farmers prepare for and adapt to both the positive and negative effects of climate change.
This project uses data collected from 44 weather stations across Alaska. These stations have collected both air and soil temperatures for the past 10–25 years. These data are being analyzed to answer the following questions:
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How much has soil temperature changed in the last 20 years in Alaska?
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How many times does the soil freeze and thaw throughout the year and has that number changed (particularly during the growing season)?
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What is the relationship between air and soil temperatures in Alaska? Can air temperature be used to predict how soil temperatures will be affected by climate change?
Given the size of Alaska, the stations will be grouped into different regions based on permafrost (zones of continuous permafrost, discontinuous, and permafrost free). Results will be shared in various formats, including decision support tools (e.g., fact sheets, interactive maps), as well as with the scientific community via publication in a peer-reviewed journal.