Realign significantly disrupted ecosystems to meet expected future conditions

EASTERN: Some ecosystems may experience such significant disruption and decline that desired conditions or management objectives appear to be no longer feasible. This situation may occur if most species in the ecosystem are projected to decline as climate changes. Management of these systems may be adjusted to create necessary changes in species composition and structure to better adapt forests to current and anticipated environments, rather than to historical pre-disturbance conditions. Developing clear plans that establish processes for realigning significantly altered ecosystems before engaging in active management will allow for more thoughtful discussion and better coordination with other adaptation responses.

WESTERN: California, like many western states, is expected to experience increases in uncharacteristically large disturbance events, such as wildfire, or stress, such as prolonged and severe drought. Some ecosystems may experience such significant disruptions that desired conditions or forest management objectives appear to be no longer feasible. This situation may be linked to “mega-disturbances” such as massive wildfires or extended severe drought in places where most species in the ecosystem are projected to decline as climate changes. Such a forecast will likely produce conditions for invasive species to quickly colonize and establish. Management of systems experiencing this level of change may require adjustment to create necessary changes in species composition and structure to better adapt forests to current and anticipated environments, rather than to historical pre-disturbance conditions. Developing clear plans that establish processes for realigning significantly altered ecosystems before engaging in active management will allow for more thoughtful discussion and better coordination with other adaptation responses. 

URBAN: Many urban areas may experience such significant alterations from human- and climate-induced disturbance that it will become difficult to restore systems that reflect native ecosystems of the past. Management of these systems may be realigned to create necessary changes in species composition and structure to better adapt forests to current and anticipated environments, rather than historical pre-disturbance conditions. In more developed areas, this could mean designing “novel ecosystems” that incorporate both natural and engineered elements and contain entirely new species compositions. Developing clear plans that establish processes for realigning significantly altered ecosystems before undertaking these actions will allow for more thoughtful discussion and better coordination with other adaptation responses.

FOREST: Ecosystems may face significant impacts as a result of climate change-related alterations in disturbances, including fire, drought, invasive species, and severe weather events. Disturbances are primary drivers of many ecosystems, but changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of disturbance events may create significant management challenges. Although it is often not possible to predict a disturbance event, it is possible to increase overall preparedness for large and severe disturbances and prioritize rapid response. Many of the best opportunities for addressing disturbance-related impacts may occur immediately after the disturbance event; having a suite of preplanned options in place may facilitate an earlier and more flexible response and prevent maladaptive responses. In the future there are likely to be more frequent situations where a disturbance exceeds the resilience of an ecosystem, such that even intensive management may be insufficient to return the ecosystem to a prior condition. In these cases, it may be necessary to reevaluate and adjust management goals, which can involve realigning the ecosystem to better match new climate and environmental conditions. This strategy involves consideration of the full range of potential impacts and planning to respond to severe ecosystem disturbance and disruption. 

URBAN: Urban areas, in particular, may face dramatic impacts as a result of climate change-related alterations in disturbances, including pest outbreaks, floods, and storm events. As with natural ecosystems, some of the best opportunities for addressing disturbance-related impacts may occur immediately after the disturbance event; having a suite of preplanned options in place may facilitate an earlier and more flexible response. Urban areas faced with disasters are provided the opportunity to rebuild, and can use this opportunity to create an urban landscape that is better aligned with current and future climate conditions.