Manage crops to cope with warmer and drier conditions

Since the Midwest and Northeast regions of the United States can expect to see warmer temperatures and seasonal changes in precipitation, it is reasonable to expect that soil moisture regimes will also shift. Although there is substantial variation among model projections, longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures are generally expected to result in greater evapotranspiration losses and lower soil-water availability later in the growing season. Further, increases in extreme rain events suggest that greater amounts of precipitation may occur during fewer precipitation events, resulting in longer periods between rainfall. The effects of warmer temperatures on photosynthesis is one of the biggest determinants of crop yields, and temperatures only slightly above optimum can cause mild heat stress and begin to inhibit photosynthesis. This approach emphasizes the management of existing crops while Strategy 6 (Alter management to accommodate new and expected conditions) presents example actions to diversify crops or switch to new crops. The effectiveness of actions under this approach are highly interrelated and dependent on adequately functioning soil and water crop resources addressed by actions in Strategy 1 (Sustain fundamental functions of soil and water).

Many of the key climate variables affecting agricultural productivity are directly tied to increases in temperature. A longer growing season, warmer daytime and nighttime temperatures, and drier conditions are all expected to have important effects on agricultural crops and livestock, and in many areas of the Midwest, effects are already being observed. Increasingly, producers will need to consider and address the unique effects of higher temperatures on individual commodities. In some locations, drier conditions will have greater impacts.